CYCLE/CAPITAL

Crypto sleeve

Most volatile. Highest potential. Immaculate if timed right.

The Bitcoin halving clock

Roughly every four years new BTC supply is cut in half. Historically, the strongest expansion has followed 12–18 months after a halving, with a major drawdown after the blow-off top.

2012
50 → 25 BTC
2016
25 → 12.5 BTC
2020
12.5 → 6.25 BTC
2024
6.25 → 3.125 BTC
~2028
3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
Next

Key indicator

Stablecoin on-chain expansion

Growing stablecoin supply is dry powder sitting on-chain, ready to rotate into BTC and alts. Rising supply plus exchange inflows tends to precede expansion; shrinking supply warns liquidity is leaving.

Gold vs BTC

Safety vs growth

Gold remains the safer store of value when the market rolls over. Bitcoin and select alts keep compounding as on-chain adoption grows — hold gold for preservation, crypto for asymmetric upside.

Crypto by phase

Trough

Small BTC accumulation, stablecoins ready.

Reversal

Build BTC core as stablecoin supply rises.

Expansion

Add selective alts; take profits into strength.

Peak

Rotate gains to stablecoins, cash and gold.